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March 2021, No. 96


Economy

Prospect of Iranís Economy In 1400


Iranís economy in the first six months of 1400 will be spent on the beginning of negotiations and the results of Iranís interaction and negotiations with the United States and its allies


Mohammad Kazem, Senior Economic Expert


Iran is going to welcome the calendar year 1400 under circumstances that it is faced with complicated political and economic variables.

The departure of Donald Trump and arrival of Joe Biden and the return of the United States to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the possibility of lifting tough sanctions, especially the release of the resources blocked in foreign banks, the upcoming presidential elections in Iran, the unknown fate of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), continued pandemic of Coronavirus and its impact on the global economy, the issue of Iran oil exports in the currently shaped markets, the strategy of no negotiation with the United States over Iranís missile and nuclear policies, cooperation among Arab countries in the region and establishing relations with Israel, continuation of Iranís supportive policies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, skyrocketing prices along with recession in Iran, unemployment, and domestic inflation are among the few important political and economic issues that have created complex and intertwined processes of Iranís economic and political problems with regard to the United States and its allies.

Undoubtedly, solving these challenges and fundamental interaction to solve them in the sectors of production, trade and services and adapting it to the global and international business environment through negotiation and regulation of political relations are made to remove economic barriers; also political achievements will provide a prelude for the step-by-step solution of economic problems.

Joe Bidenís victory in the US presidential elections has paved the way for resolving of the challenges between the two countries through negotiation, and in fact Bidenís de-escalation policies, including announcing the US return to the JCPOA, has now replaced the policies of maximum pressure based on hard and difficult sanctions. However, in order to make maximum use of this opportunity, Iranís governing policies should be adjusted in proportion to the change in the approach of the United States and its European allies, in order to make it possible to untie the countryís political and economic problems through interaction and dialogue.

According to what has been said, at the most optimistic opportunity, Iranís economy in the first six months of 1400 will be spent on the beginning of negotiations and the results of Iranís interaction and negotiations with the United States and its allies, and this important point will shape the status of economic and political indicators of the country in future.

On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the collapse of domestic policies of the Iranian economy, which has led to the growing poverty and corruption and managerial inefficiency in various sectors of the society and promotes public dissatisfaction, is one of the governance problems that should consider the resilience, strength and endurance of the society to pass through this crucial six-month period in order to make, simultaneously with the progress of political interactions, the reopening of economic prosperity resulting from the outcome of the negotiations fruitful and tangible for the society.

With such an approach, the outlook of Iranís economy in 1400 can be related to the importance and achievements of political management of international relations and trade in the path of prosperity and boosting the countryís economy and evaluate its impact in the coming decades as effective, important and strategic.

 

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  March 2021
No. 96